BLOG – Simon Eardley, Head of Policy & Innovation at Mersey Maritime | May 2026
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically significant – and currently volatile – maritime chokepoints in the world. Following attendance at a Lloyd’s List Intelligence webinar on 14 May 2026, it is clear that the evolving situation in the region is already reshaping global shipping patterns, risk calculations, and the wider geopolitical context in which maritime trade operates.
This blog sets out some of the key insights from a fascinating short session and offers some reflections on what they mean for the UK maritime sector and beyond.
A critical and known chokepoint under severe pressure
The Strait of Hormuz has long been recognised as a vital artery for global energy flows and trade, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Today, however, it is also an increasingly complex risk environment. We are into day 76 of the current crisis. The region is experiencing a sustained period of disruption shaped by conflict dynamics, competing military actions, and shifting enforcement measures.
While some vessel movements continue, traffic is notably diminishing. The pattern is not simply one of reduction, but of transformation: operators are adapting behaviours, routing decisions, and visibility practices in response to escalating uncertainty.
Transit data points to a rapid decline in traffic through the Strait
Data presented during the webinar shows a stark reduction in transits through the Strait in recent weeks. The change is stark with 78 transits (23 “dark” and 55 traceable) in week 16 (13-19 April) to 18 transits (10 “dark”, 8 traceable and attempted untracked movements) in week 19 (4-10 May).This downward trajectory highlights both declining throughput and a growing reluctance among operators to expose vessels to risk. At the same time, the proportion of vessels travelling “dark” (i.e. without AIS tracking) underscores the increasingly opaque nature of maritime activity in the region.
The decline is closely linked to escalating geopolitical developments, including the imposition of a US blockade on Iranian ports from 13 April, alongside warnings that vessels carrying “contraband” could be seized even on the high seas.
A shift in behaviour by shipowners
The reaction from shipowners and operators has been swift but also pragmatic. Many are now treating the disruption as a long-term structural risk rather than a temporary crisis. This has several implications:
- Reassessment of risk appetite: Owners are weighing exposure against potential financial and insurance costs.
- Changes in routing decisions: Some vessels are avoiding the Strait altogether, while others are timing transits differently or travelling in less visible ways.
- Operational caution: The rise in “dark” transits reflects both strategic decision-making and heightened security concerns.
Interestingly, the composition of traffic has also shifted. For much of the conflict, shadow fleet vessels accounted for more than 75% of throughput by deadweight tonnage, but this trend appears to have reversed following the blockade. This suggests enforcement measures are having at least some impact on the structure of maritime traffic – though questions remain over their overall effectiveness.
The blockage: effectiveness vs legitimacy
A significant theme explored during the webinar was the tension between legal validity and operational effectiveness. The blockade was initially viewed by many as legally questionable. However, in maritime practice, enforcement often shapes interpretation: a measure can gain de facto legitimacy if it proves effective in restricting activity.
Evidence suggests the blockade is having a measurable impact. Traffic linked to Iran has consistently declined since its introduction, and there have already been 65 vessels redirected as part of enforcement actions.
Nonetheless, this raises broader concerns about precedent. If such measures become normalised, the implications for global maritime governance – particularly freedom of navigation – could be profound.
Energy flows and market impact
The disruption is already being felt across global energy supply chains:
- Iranian crude shipments to China have been affected
- LPG flows appear less disrupted
- Countries are actively seeking alternative supply routes, including imports from Russia in some cases which raises its own geopolitical concerns and considerations
Despite the upheaval, there is a general consensus that global fuel supplies remain adequate in the short term, potentially for the next four months or more, but this will need to be kept under close monitor
However, this buffer is not permanent. Prolonged disruption could lead to tighter markets, increased costs, and broader economic consequences.
What does the future hold?
The webinar outlined three plausible scenarios for how the crisis might evolve:
- Best case: rapid resolution
A swift end to the conflict, with conditions normalising over a staged recovery period. While desirable, this scenario currently appears increasingly unlikely.
- Base case: prolonged disruption
Currently, the most probable outcome is a continuation of restricted passage and elevated security risks, with partial flows maintained but well below normal levels.
- Worst case: strategic closure
The most severe scenario would see the Strait effectively closed to most traffic, with access determined by geopolitical alignment. This would represent a fundamental shift in global trade dynamics and trigger cascading effects across other maritime chokepoints.
Freedom of navigation under threat – a fundamental challenge for the maritime industry
Perhaps the most significant long-term implication is the potential erosion of freedom of navigation, a principle that underpins the entire global shipping system.
As one of the webinar’s key messages put it: “What happens in Hormuz doesn’t stay in Hormuz.” The Strait is not an isolated case. It sits within a broader pattern of rising maritime insecurity, including ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, increased piracy in the north-west Indian Ocean and a general uptick in conflict at sea.
Together, these developments challenge the stability of international shipping norms and increase the daily risks faced by seafarers. Behind the data and geopolitics is an important human factor: the safety of those at sea.
The webinar highlighted a concerning increase in violent maritime incidents, with seafarers facing heightened exposure to conflict zones, interception risks, and security threats. This reality must remain as an important element in industry and government discussions. Operational decisions are not just commercial; they have direct implications for lives.
The prospect of long-term economic instability
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not simply a regional dispute; its implications are global. There is a growing expectation that the disruption could contribute to wider economic instability, with the scale dependent on how long it persists and how severely traffic is constrained. Domestically this is being felt at petrol pumps around the UK with immense volatility in forecourt prices. But the potential knock-on effects are much broader and include likely increased freight and insurance costs, supply chain delays, sustained and erratic pressure on energy prices, the diversion of trade routes and added strain on other critical and well known chokepoints such as the Suez Canal.
Even in a best-case scenario, recovery will not be immediate if there were to be an immediate resolution in the next few weeks. The consensus from the webinar is that impacts are likely to be felt into 2027, even if the conflict were resolved today.
What are the key policy and strategic implications?
For policymakers and industry stakeholders, several key considerations emerge:
- Resilience planning is key. Maritime businesses and governments must plan for prolonged disruption rather than short-term volatility.
- Protection of maritime norms and established practice. There is an urgent need to reinforce international commitment to freedom of navigation and rule-based maritime governance.
- Supply Chain Diversification. Greater flexibility in sourcing and routing will be essential to mitigate risk. Easier said than done!
- Collaboration and intelligence sharing. Accurate, timely data – such as that provided by Lloyd’s List Intelligence – is critical for informed decision-making.
Looking ahead
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for global maritime risk, with developments unfolding rapidly and unpredictably.
Recent geopolitical engagement, such as the US–China Summit referenced during the webinar, may play a role in shaping future dynamics, but there is broad recognition that no single diplomatic intervention will resolve the crisis quickly. More fundamentally, proposals such as the introduction of transit tolling schemes (already mooted by President Trump) represent the potential for structural shifts in how maritime access is governed.
Conclusion
Everything is maritime!
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a stark reminder of the fragility of global maritime systems. What may begin as a regional conflict can rapidly escalate into a worldwide economic and operational challenge.
For the UK maritime sector – and for Mersey Maritime members in particular – the key message is clear: this is not a short-term disruption and it could represent a fundamental strategic shift.
The coming months will test not only operational resilience, but also the durability of the principles that underpin global trade. Maintaining safe, secure, and open seas is no longer just an aspiration. It is an urgent priority, perhaps like never before.
